Shouts from the desert

With a new video of Osama bin Laden released in which he mentions both Bush and Kerry, we finally have confirmation that he is still alive. He also appears to have favoured Kerry over Bush in the video, or more precisely, opposed Bush more than Kerry. This is something that of course can only help Bush - in fact I suspect you would be hard-pressed to find anybody who thinks that bin Laden's effective support for a Kerry victory does anything but help Bush.

Including Osama bin Laden. The man may be the most most notorious non-government criminal in the world, but he surely knows by now that when a terrorist appears to be trying to get the United States - both its Government and its people - to do something, then the United States is more likely to do exactly the opposite. So if, as a terrorist, you want them to do a particular thing, you need to tell them to do the opposite.

In this case, he is suggesting to Americans that he wants them to kick Bush out, which means he really wants them to put Bush back in. It's a game that a five-year-old knows how to play, but it remains effective wherever emotions start taking over from logic.

Even the attacks on the World Trade Centre were of this nature. From a logical point of view, there was no way they could ever achieve a reduction in the use of force by the United States. Anybody seeing the footage of the aircraft hitting the towers had a particular emotional response - which bin Laden would have anticipated - one which roused the instinct for revenge. Those attacks were designed to encourage a military response, and if possible, a disproportionate and misdirected military response. The invasion of Iraq fits the bill perfectly, with the death toll there being between 5 and 20 times the death toll in the WTC attacks.

The purpose of those attacks was to provoke a response that bin Laden could use to raise support elsewhere for his organisation, and that is what has happened. Many of us identified this purpose when we first saw footage of the attacks, and since then every action Bush has taken has been regrettably been exactly along expected lines.

With Bush following the script so well, it is no surprise that bin Laden would favour his re-election.

That is not to say that the United States should not have responded. Bin Laden is a violent and dangerous criminal who needs to be brought to justice. But the response needed to be measured and controlled by intelligent and logical thought, not by emotion and instinct. That is something at which Bush has been an abject failure.