Shouts from the desert

This week has seen a return of media discussion about whether Costello should or will replace Howard as leader of the Liberal Party. This comes off the back of Latham's rise in the polls, and Costello's refusal to rule out a challenge.

This is of course a side-show. Of course Latham's doing well in the polls - he's new, and new leaders always do well in the polls, unless they were appointed following an election defeat, in which case they don't get the "new leader" honeymoon because they already suffer from the "defeated party" image. Latham gained the leadership in the middle of the Parliamentary term, and so was inevitably going to do well in the polls - at least for a while.

While some people think Howard could lose an election to Latham, this relies on Latham keeping his popularity up. He would have to do it for a long time - while people keep talking about the election later this year, what few people realise is that Howard can delay the election up until April 2005.

Going until April 2005 would mean Howard would become the country's second longest serving Prime Minister - after Sir Robert Menzies, who is widely labelled Howard's hero. It is unlikely Howard would aspire to defeating Menzies' record, but there is no doubt that he would covet the number two spot. If Howard calls a November election as many suggest he will, and then loses, he would be number three, behind Hawke. This makes it likely that unless he is sure of an election victory, Howard will take the Parliament to its expiry date in February 2005, with a March or April 2005 election.

Can Latham hold on to support for that long? Perhaps, but this is by no means certain. There is a lot of time for the Liberals to change leaders, and the closer to the election they change, the more likely it is Costello would be able to capitalise on the new leader honeymoon.

If Latham can hold the ALP to a winning position for that long, expect Howard to hold on until next year, and then to step aside in mid to late January 2005. He will equal Hawke on Boxing Day 2004, so by January he will have the second place to Menzies and would most likely rather leave the office on a high than suffer a defeat that he could otherwise blame on Costello.

Even if all of these factors weren't in play, a pretender has only a limited number of chances to make their challenge. Costello will not spending those chances unless he is certain of at least a credible showing for the first, and a victory for the second. He is not in that position yet.

Here in the electorate of Bennelong (Howard's seat), there are of course other issues. Howard's back-to-the-sixties values do not reflect those of the people of Bennelong. He wins the seat not so much on personal merit as on being the Liberal candidate. Bennelong has come down on the side of Liberal ever since the electorate was formed. While probably far more than 50% of the voters in the electorate would like to see Howard gone, there are also more than 50% of the electorate who would rather poke their eyes out with sticks than vote for an ALP candidate, no matter who the candidate is.

In terms of the local electorate this is a turnaround from the normal situation. A Prime Minister (or any leader of a party) normally attracts more support in their seat than another candidate would, just because of the prestige of their position. Howard, on the other hand, does not have that bonus because of his distance from local community values. If Howard is successfully challenged he will almost certainly resign from Parliament immediately. If he steps aside, it is certain that he would not stand for the subsequent election. Either way, the new candidate in Bennelong would be likely to get a larger vote in the seat than Howard could ever hope for.