Shouts from the desert

Yesterday's decision to replace Kim Beazley and Jenny Macklin with Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard would on its own likely take more votes from the Greens than from the Liberals, but Rudd is already showing a willingness to make tactical decisions that could well deliver him the next election. This morning he has directly challenged the power of the factions - both in actions and in words - and shown a style of strong leadership that has not been seen in the ALP in my lifetime, if ever.

With Julia Gillard being from the left of Labor, she is likely to attract first preference votes back from the section of the Greens supporters who have recently seen the Greens as the only left wing option left. Rudd's decision to promote Peter Garrett to the front bench and tell the factions to go to hell if they disagree not only demonstrates strong leadership style, it is a tactical decision that is likely to lure more votes away from the Greens. There are no prizes for guessing which portfolio Rudd has in mind for Garrett, and Garret's credibility on the environment will make it difficult for the Greens to keep much of their original constituency.

If Rudd is willing to challenge the factions, it cannot be long before he also challenges union control of the ALP. The unions are able to dictate policy to the ALP, and this is something that keeps a significant block of people voting for the Liberals. If Rudd is able to do away with this gerrymander, he will steal a chunk of Liberal supporters as well. Another chunk of Liberal supporters look for strong leadership, and with Rudd showing such strong leadership right out of the gate, that is another block of Liberal supporters who will now be looking at the ALP as a newly viable option.

Yet while Rudd is showing strong leadership, he is also building a strong leadership team. Under Beazley the leadership team was Beazley and his background singers. Under Rudd we can expect Gillard will take a much higher profile, and it seems he is ready to make Garrett much more visible. The leadership team so far is Rudd, Gillard and Garrett - three prominent faces each appealing to a different section of the community. It is already shaping up to be a strategically constructed leadership team designed to build on the strengths of each member.

On top of this, the man just looks credible. His "greying Harry Potter" look projects the impression of somebody who is smart, experienced and trustworthy. While not many political tragics will take that into account, there is a large chunk of the electorate who vote according to such superficial characteristics.

Yesterday I thought the leadership change would result in a short term boost (the honeymoon effect) in the Labor vote, with most of the long term benefit coming at the expense of the Greens primary vote. Today the change is looking like a radical realignment of the ALP and if Rudd can maintain this momentum he poses a serious threat to Howard in 2007.