It's been a long time that I've wanted him rolled
Late last night the Bennelong result was looking like it would end up dependant on the large number of postal votes usually lodged in the electorate, with these needing to favour the Prime Minister by between one and two thousand votes to swing the electorate back. On past performance in postal votes this would not have been out of the question, and this explains McKew's cautious assessment last night.
This morning, with only the hospital, absentee, pre-poll, postal and provisional votes not counted, McKew is ahead by 2,629 votes - favourable results in all these remaining categories could not save him now.
Congratulations go to Maxine McKew. While we were both working on the North Epping booth in the State election (she for the ALP, I for the Democrats), I told that I really hoped she took Howard out this year. Her response was to describe that as a big ask. Nevertheless, she has delivered.
Howard is now the second Prime Minister to lose his seat in an election. He leaves politics having dragged his Party from a respectable position into fringe policies and control by religious authoritarians. It seems unlikely that, whoever takes the leadership up now (and my bet is on either Costello or Nelson, with Nelson being the only remotely viable contender who I would expect to seriously consider challenge Costello), will be able to avoid public divisions in the Party, making it unelectable for several elections.
While the Liberals still have lingering respect for the PM now, I suspect this is something that will no longer last. While the Liberal Party showed Howard "unbelievable" loyalty and support, Howard did not show the same loyalty and support to the Liberal Party. Howard always treated the Liberal Party solely as a convenient vehicle for his own personal ambitions, not only in Government, but throughout the years in opposition when, during times he was not leader of the Party, he continually undermined whoever was the leader, earning him the "rodent" nickname. He has used the party, chewed it up and spat it out.
What is Turnbull thinking?
Turnbull was awfully quick to put up his hand for the leadership after Costello bowed out. Given that first-term opposition leaders tend not to ever serve as Prime Minister, you have to wonder what he is thinking. Turnbull has made it clear that he wants to be Prime Minister, and he would certainly make a good Liberal PM, but to seek the leadership now is to accept a poisoned chalice - it will reduce his chance of ever being PM to near zero.