Shouts from the desert

In the final season of The West Wing, character Josh Lyman explains to a campaign team that elections are not a fight over the answers &emdash; they are a fight over what the questions will be, and the side that sets the questions wins because the questions will centre around that side's strengths.

John Howard did exactly this in 2004 &emdash; in an election where he was expected to suffer some backlash, he set the questions while calling the election to make it about experience versus risk. He simultaneously undermined the opposing question by describing this as an issue "trust". The ALP question in that election was also about trust, but Howard turned that on its head so it meant something else entirely &emdash; who did the electorate trust to manage the economy and keep interest rates low rather than who did they trust to be truthful and to be responsible with power.

At yesterday's ALP campaign launch, Rudd defined the agenda with the ALP campaign slogan "New Leadership". The leaked Crosby-Textor polling shows this is the ALP's greatest strength, so if they can keep this as the central question in the election they are certain to win.

If Howard repeats his form of the last election he will announce the election with a theme like this:

This election is about leadership - experienced leadership with a strong track record of economic prosperity, challenged by risky, inexperienced, untested leadership.

Actually he will probably have something even more clever to say to twist leadership into an entirely different question, after all, "John Howard is a very clever politician."

The Rudd campaign is a variant on the "Time for a change" theme used by Whitlam in the 70s. The degree of success in this campaign slogan depends on how well the ALP can keep the word "new" associated with leadership. There will need to be an emphasis on the word new so that the Prime Minister cannot make the campaign question about leadership without that essential adjective.