Shouts from the desert

Pundits are no longer asking whether the Liberal Government will be defeated this year &emdash; now they are only asking "by how much". On the other hand, they say, neither Costello nor Turnbull could turn this around. This is based on surveys that show voter support for the Liberal Party would be even lower without Howard as leader.

One thing is clear and consistent in the surveys &emdash; absent some dramatic turn of events in the next couple of months, the Liberals are on a hiding to nothing this year with Howard at the helm. Their only chance is to take a gamble that voters who are opposed to the theoretical leadership of Costello or Turnbull will change their minds if the change actually happens. Chances are each would be more popular once they are actually in the role than they are as theoretical candidates for the role, and in fact there is a consistent pattern over the years that a victorious challenger becomes much more popular after the challenge than they were before the challenge.

Turnbull is unlikely to make the challenge now. While a change of leader now seems to be the only prospect for Liberal success this year, it is far from a guarantee of it, and failure as PM this year would harm Turnbull's prospects of being elected PM in his own right down the track. Costello, on the other hand, has nothing to lose. If Howard remains PM and loses, Costello will have one, or if he is lucky two, terms as opposition leader, but will never be Prime Minister. His only hope for that role is to take it now and work on changing voters' views on him between now and the election.

The only problem is that despite this being Costello's only hope, we all know he lacks the spine to make the attempt.