My ordering of candidates for Saturday

Troy Rollo's picture

With the election two days away it seems unlikely anything will happen to change circumstances, and it has been a fairly quiet week anyway, so it is time to post my ordering of candidates.

In the lower house the number one spot, taken solely on the merits of the candidates, would be a dead heat between David Havyatt for the Democrats and the independent Martin Levine. Both have solid liberal policy positions, and both are capable in public speaking and debate. Havyatt has a great depth of policy knowledge, and Levine demonstrates an ability to bring a fresh perspective and come up with novel ways of looking at an issue. This leaves me looking at the question of which is the better strategic vote, and that means, in Epping, who has the best chance of holding a decent swag of votes that would otherwise be destined for the Liberal Party candidate.

The Democrats have an undeserved reputation for being left wing. In fact they are very much in the liberal centre and I suspect that if more people understood what the Democrats policies are then the Democrats would be a natural fit for a clear majority of the electorate. Unfortunately this is not the perception that is out there, and so an independent has a better chance at holding the traditional Liberal votes that are critical to winning this seat. Accordingly I will be putting Levine at number 1 and Havyatt at number 2.

The next set of candidates are the three I rated as "neutral" in the candidates forum - Nicole Campbell for the ALP, Simon Tam for Unity and Lindsay Peters for the Greens. There are reasons why you might consider putting any one of the three at the top of that band, but in this group I am inclined to put Simon Tam in the number 3 spot as somebody who could act as a neutral between the major parties, then Lindsay Peters at 4 in support of the Greens policy of redirecting road spending towards public transport, and Nicole Campbell at 5.

At position 6 comes Greg Smith. His policy background is a right wing one that reflects much of what is wrong with the Liberal Party in New South Wales. As long as they remain under the influence of religious fundamentalists, the Liberals are going to be hard pressed to be elevated over Labor in my preferences list, and the only reason Smith does not come last is that there are so many other deserving candidates for last place.

After Smith we have the three candidates I have described as untouchable due to their total lack of suitability to the role of a legislator and their policy positions which stem from hate and bigotry. I have tried to pick an order from them but I cannot - none of them deserves to be given a preference, and so I will not be allocating a seventh through ninth preference, this gives:

  • 5 - Nicole Campbell (Labor)
  • 3 - Simon Tam (Unity)
  • 4 - Lindsay Peters (Greens)
  • 2 - David Havyatt (Democrats)
  • 1 - Martin Levine (Independent)
  • â–¡ - Michael Bergman (Australians Against Further Immigration)
  • 6 - Greg Smith (Liberal)
  • â–¡ - John Kingsmill (Christian Democrats)
  • â–¡ - Christina Metlikovec (Independent)

In the upper house I will be voting above the line. The options there are as follows. Upper case names are registered party names. Lower case names are my assessment based on reviewing the candidates in the group - those groups are unnamed on the ballot paper). Where I have been able to identify a web site associated with the group I have provided a link.

In the upper house the Democrats (Group G) are an easy pick for the number 1 position - their policies are well aligned with the tenets of liberalism. Additionally we need more of them in the Federal Senate, and getting more of them in the State Parliament is going to help with that. There is virtually no chance of a Democrat getting up in the lower house, but in the upper house it is possible for one or maybe even two to make it through.

After that I will give my number 2 to the Greens, 3 to Unity, 4 to Labor and 5 to the Liberals and Nationals - once again the Liberals come below the ALP due to the influence of fundamentalist religious extremists in the Liberals - they need to fix that up before they can get ahead of the ALP in my list.

Submitted by Troy Rollo on Thu, 22/03/2007 - 9:39pm

Statewide voting patterns

Troy Rollo's picture

The Sydney Morning Herald is reporting that polls show the statewide primary vote is as follows (this does not add up to 100 due to rounding):

  • ALP: 41%
  • Liberal/National: 36%
  • Greens: 10%
  • Independents: 8%
  • Democrats: 1%
  • Others: 3%

After preferences they have:

  • ALP: 56%
  • Liberal/National: 44%

This would tend to confirm the view that an independent is a better chance to take out the Liberals in Epping. Levine has run a strong campaign that ought so see him winning the lion's share of the local independent vote and together with dissatisfaction with the choice of Liberal candidate may see the independent vote in Epping being higher than the statewide average, most of that vote coming from traditionally Liberal voters.

The Democrats have Levine at number 2, and since this would be the most sensible way for their supporters to allocate preferences Levine should get the majority of Democrat preferences. This combined with the personal vote for Levine may be enough to push him above the Greens.

The Greens how-to-votes direct preferences to the ALP before Levine. This is a strange choice, but Greens voters are notorious for making up their own minds about where to send their preferences and it would make sense for most of them to preference Levine over the ALP, especially if they are voting strategically to keep Levine's votes away from the Liberals.

The other minor candidates' preferences could go anywhere. but it is possible, in principle, that Levine could secure enough preferences to make it through to the final 3 and come second in that round - if he does then ALP preferences should push him over the line.