Shouts from the desert

A Roy Morgan Research poll conducted specifically of Bennelong voters has found that the Prime Minister would lose his seat if an election were held today. The poll was commissioned by Crikey, whose political editor, Christian Kerr, has suspected this for some time now. Kerr has been looking for a similar poll from the 2004 election but there does not appear to have been one (if you know of a poll specific to Bennelong, let him know via the "Contact" link at the Crikey web site).

Previously the ALP State Secretary, Mark Arbib, has been adamant that the ALP would not put significant resources into Bennelong until Howard retired - the feeling of the NSW executive of the ALP was that Howard as PM was too difficult to move and that it was a waste of resources to make a serious attempt. This new poll could change that.

This is early days yet so the mood has a lot of room to move before the election, and there may be some element of voters trying to punish the Prime Minister through the opinion polls. In fact given that the Prime Minister's margin in Bennelong last election was less than the swing to the Liberals nationally at the election it is entirely possible that a similar poll in 2004 would have produced the same result.

The poll will give considerable hope to people who would like to see the back of Howard, but it seems too good to be true, and when things seem that way, they usually are.