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Does John Howard not understand the US system, and is he planning retirement?
Yesterday the Prime Minister, John Howard, attacked US presidential candidate Barack Obama, for putting a March 2008 deadline on the withdrawal of troops from Iraq, saying:
That would just encourage those who want to completely destabilise and destroy Iraq to hang on and hope for an Obama victory... If I were running Al Qaeda in Iraq, I would put a circle around March 2008 and pray as many times as possible for a victory not only for Obama but also for the Democrats
The problem with this theory is that the US presidential and Congressional election will not be until November 2008, so there will be no relevant "victory" for either Obama or for the Democrats between now and March 2008. Even if he were talking strictly about the primaries, Super Tuesday is in early March 2008, and even if we go back to the New Hampshire primary and Iowa Caucus we are only bringing the possibility of "victory" for Obama back to January 2008. Victories here would have no effect on Obama's ability to influence a withdrawal by March 2008, and even if they were to generate such influence there would be insufficient time between January and March to adequately plan and conduct such a withdrawal.
The decision by the Prime Minister to attack a leading presidential candidate in the US raises questions as to whether he expects to be dealing with that candidate should they be elected. If elected, Obama would take office in January 2009. If the Prime Minister feels free to attack his policy in this way, should we be inferring that he does not intend to be Prime Minister at that time?
Given the Prime Minister's repeated statements to the effect that he will stay on until somebody gets rid of him - his party, the electorate or the grim reaper - I suspect he has simply had a Beazley style "senior's moment". That his comments about Obama ignored facts about the US system that Howard should know tends to support this.
On the other hand, perhaps John Howard does not really support the US alliance - it may be that the only alliance he values is his alliance with President Bush.